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Abstract
the capital city of Sultanate of Oman in future. We used the MIROC general circulation model (GCM) output (maximum and minimum temperatures and precipitation) from the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5 scenarios of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for assessing changes in climate in the period of 2080-2099 compared to the baseline period of 1986-2005. The spatial mismatch between GCM grid scale and local scale was resolved by applying the LARS stochastic Weather Generator (WG) model. The results obtained for 4 scenarios indicate a significant warming in future, which ranges from 0.93ᴼC (minimum temperature by 1.1ᴼC and maximum temperature by 0.86ᴼC) for the lowest scenario, RCP 2.6, to 3.1ᴼC (minimum temperature by 3.2ᴼC and maximum temperature by 3.0ᴼC) for the highest one, RCP 8.5, relative to baseline level. The differences in the precipitation projections between the scenarios are much greater compared to consistent warming depicted in temperatures. The results reveal -36.4% and -36.0% decreases in precipitation for the RCP 2.6 and RCP 4.5 scenarios, respectively, while, RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5 scenarios predict increase in precipitation in a range from 9.6% to 12.5%, respectively during 2080-2099 compared to 1986-2005 period. These results need to be further improved by adopting more GCMs, which will provide potential changes in a consistent.
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References
M. Parry, O. Canziani, J. Palutikof, P. V. Linden and C. Hanson, “Climate change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Summary for policymakersâ€, Cambridge University Press, New York, 2007.
K. Eckhardt and U. Ulbrich, “Potential impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge and streamflow in a central European low mountain range,†Journal of Hydrology, vol. 284, pp. 244-252, 2003.
S. Brouyere, G. Carabin and A. Dassargues, “Climate change impacts on groundwater resources: modelled deficits in a chalky aquifer, Geer basin, Belgium,†Hydrogeology Journal, vol. 12, pp.123-134, 2004.
N. J. Rosenberg, D. J. Epstein, D. Wang, L. Vail, R. Srinivasan and J. G. Arnold, “Possible impacts of global warming on the hydrology of the Ogallala Aquifer region,†Climatic Change, vol. 42, pp. 677–692, 1999.
M. E. Rafy, and Y. Hafez, “Anomalies in meteorological fields over northern Asia and its impact on Hurricane Gonu,†28th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, pp. 1–12, 2008.
K. Taylor, R. J. Stouffer and G. A. Meehl, “A summary of the CMIP5
Experiment Design†[Online]. Available: http://cmip-pcmdi.llnl.gov/cmip5/docs/Taylor_CMIP5_design.pdf
M. A. Semenov and E. M. Barrow, “Use of a stochastic weather generator in the development of climate change scenarios,†Climatic Change, vol. 35, pp.397-414, 1997.