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Analysis of Output and Employment of Trade and Finance in India: A Case of Disproportional Rise in Output than Employment for Service Sector
Corresponding Author(s) : Dipak Prakash
Humanities & Social Sciences Reviews,
Vol. 10 No. 4 (2022): July
Abstract
Purpose of the study: The study aims to analyse why the service sector in India has not generated employment in the proportion of output when the sector has geared up its share in national income since 1980.
Methodology: It's based on a simple comparative empirical analysis of data on output and employment of trade and finance in India. Quantitative analysis of output is based on data collected from National Accounts Statistics (NAS). The analysis used data from the base year 2004-05 and back series. On the 2004-05 back series, data is available till the year 2011-12. Therefore, to explain long periods, 1950 to 2012, we used 2004-05 data. However, for the latest analysis of output along with employment, we prefer to use the 2011-12 series GDP data of KLEMS India (published by RBI).
Employment data is collected primarily from two sources- NSS and KLEMS India. Principal status and subsidiary status (PS+SS) are used for analysis.
Main Findings: Trade being a labour-intensive sector has shown proportionate employment generation between 1980 to 2004. After 2004, the story changed. Despite the same pace of growth, employment generation is proportionately lower. The reason is the growing rise in the capital intensity of trade. In the case of finance, capital-intensive is just the opposite of trade- the rise in output is greater in the period, 1980 to 2004 than the concomitant rise in employment. 2004 onwards, rise in employment is greater. The reason is no significant rise in capital intensity in the sector.
Applications of the study:In macroeconomics, output and employment believed to go hand in hand. However, services defy the dictum- higher rise in GDP share but no corresponding rise in employment share. It helps understand ‘jobless growth’ of Indian economy after reforms of 1991.
Novelty/Originality of the study: Trade being labour-intensive has changed its nature after 2004, the sector’s capital intensity has grown faster than finance. Further, finance is capital-intensive sector but no significant rise in capital intensity.
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- Agarwal, M., & Ghosh, S. (2015). Structural Change In The Indian Economy. CDS Working Paper .
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Agarwal, M., & Ghosh, S. (2015). Structural Change In The Indian Economy. CDS Working Paper .
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Allen, J., & Gay, P. d. (1994). The Economic Identity of Services. Work, Employment and Society, 255-271. https://doi.org/10.1177/095001709482006 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/095001709482006
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Banga, R., & Goldar, B. (2004). Contribution Of Services To Output Growth And Productivity In Indian Manufacturing: Pre And Post Reforms. ICRIER Working Paper No. 139.
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Bhattacharya, B. B., & Mitra, A. (1990). Excess Growth of Tertiary Sector in Indian Economy: Issues and Implications. Economic and Political Weekly, 25(44), 2445-2450.
Bosworth, B., & Maertens, A. (2010). The role of the service sector in economic growth and employment in South Asia. In E. Ghani, The service revolution in South Asia. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Brochure- new series on NAS base year 1999-2000 . (n.d.). New Delhi.
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Chaudhary, S. (2011). Employment in India: What Does the Latest Data Show? EPW, 24-25.
Chenery, H. (1979). Structural Change and Development Policy. Washington, D.C.: Oxford University Press .
Clark, C. (1940). The Conditions of Economic Progress. London: Macmillan.
Dasgupta, S., & Singh, A. (2005). Will services be the new engine of Indian economic growth? Development and Change, 1035-1057. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0012-155X.2005.00449.x DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0012-155X.2005.00449.x
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Eichengreen, B., & Gupta, P. (2010). The Service Sector as India’s Road to Economic Growth? ICRIER Working Paper. https://doi.org/10.3386/w16757 DOI: https://doi.org/10.3386/w16757
Fisher, A. G. (1946). Tertiary Production as a Postwar International Economic Problem. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 146-151. https://doi.org/10.2307/1926422 DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/1926422
Fisher, A. G. (1952). A Note on Tertiary Production. The Economic Journal, 62(248), 820-834. https://doi.org/10.2307/2226528 DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/2226528
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Ghosh, J., & Chandrasekhar, C. P. (2009). The Cost of "coupling": The Global Crisis and the Indian economy. Cambridge Journal of Economics. https://doi.org/10.1093/cje/bep034 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/cje/bep034
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Gölpek, F. (2015). Service sector and technological developments. Service Sector and Technological Developments, 125-130. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2015.04.873 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2015.04.873
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Mazumdar, D., & Sarkar, S. (2007). Growth of Employment and Earnings in Tertiary Sector, 1983-2000. EPW, 976-977.
Mazumdar, S. (2010). Industry and services in growth and structural cahnge in India: some unexplored features. NEW DELHI: ISID.
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Papola, T. S. (2008). Employment Challenge and Strategies in India: An Assessment in the Framework of. Geneva: ILO.
Papola, T. S. (2012). Structural Changes in the Indian Economy: emerging patterns and implications. NEW DELHI: ISID.
Papola, T. S., & Sahu, P. P. (2012). Growth And Structure Of Employment In India Long-Term and Post-Reform Performance and the Emerging Challenge. NEW DELHI: ISID.
Pattanaik, F., & Nayak, N. C. (2010). Employment Intensity of Service Sector in India: Trend and Determinants. nternational Conference on Business and Economics Research (pp. 65-66). Kuala Lumpur: IACSIT Pres.
Rakshit, M. (2007). Services-led Growth The Indian Experience. Money and Finance, 36.
Rangarajan, C., Padma, I. K., & Seema. (2007). Revisiting Employment and Growth. Money and finance.
Rao, V. K. (1954). Changes in India’s National Income – A Static Economy in Progress. Review of World Economics.
Raveendran, G., & Unni, J. (2007). Growth of Employment (1993-94 to 2004-05): Illusion of Inclusiveness? EPW.
Reddy, Y. V. (2006). Importance of Productivity in India. Reserve Bank of India Bulletin.
Report. (n.d.). Employment Perspective and Labour Policy. New Delhi: Panning Commission of India.
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