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CAUSES OF MODERN COUPS AND CONSIDERATION OF FACTORS AFFECTING THE ESCALATION OF THE POLITICAL CRISIS IN ARAB COUNTRIES
Corresponding Author(s) : Gaziza Kurpebayeva
Humanities & Social Sciences Reviews,
Vol. 8 No. 4 (2020): July
Abstract
Purpose of the study: The article describes the comparative analysis of the main parameters of the Arab Spring Revolution. The Arab world is the ethnic core of the Middle East. These countries faced an acute problem of choosing their political strategy. Globalization has largely discounted the idea of national sovereignty and a self-sufficient economy with the leading role of the public sector.
Methodology: The main methodological approaches are defined using the basic principles reflected in leading researchers' works in political, historical, and social sciences. The complete application of comparative historical analysis allowed us to determine the main stages and trends in developing political processes within the "Arab spring" framework. The use of modeling and forecasting methods allows determining options for further development of these processes.
Main Findings: The Middle East and North Africa took part in the forced revolutionary transformation of political regimes, called the Arab spring. The growth of protests in the region is due to internal and external reasons. Each country depends on the specific socio-political, economic, religious situation, and the characteristics of states' historical development.
Applications of this study: Based on the results of this study, it is possible to develop new recommendations for the foreign ministries of countries that are neutral in relation to the processes of socio-political transformations in the Arab countries.
Novelty/Originality of this study: This study is one of the first attempts to consider the socio-political processes that took place in the countries of the Arab East through the prism of Kazakh diplomacy, as a country that does not have certain geopolitical goals and benefits, as a country that does not have a direct or indirect relationship to the events of the Arab spring.
Keywords
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- Al-Hamad, A.Y. (2003). The Arab World. Performance and Prospects, Dubai, 11.
- Alharbi, D., Othman, Z., & Daud, S. (2020). The impact of the post Arab spring on the human rights in Syria. Humanities & Social Sciences Reviews, 8(1), 456-463. https://doi.org/10.18510/hssr.2020.8157 DOI: https://doi.org/10.18510/hssr.2020.8157
- Al-Shammari, N. & Willoughby, J. (2019). Determinants of Political Instability Across Arab Spring Countries. Mediterranean Politics, 24 (2), 196-217. https://doi.org/10.1080/13629395.2017.1389349 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/13629395.2017.1389349
- Al-Sharekh, A. (2011). Reform and Rebirth in the Middle East. Survival, 53 (2), 57. https://doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2011.571010 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2011.571010
- Amnesty International (2016). State of the World’s Human Rights. Retrieved from https://www.amnesty.org/en/countries/middle-east-and-north-africa/syria/report-syria/
- Anderson, T. (2017). Syria: The diplomatic endgame: An analysis of what is really happening in the damaged country. Australian Rationalist, 104, 13-14. https://doi.org/10.5897/IJPDS2018.0318 DOI: https://doi.org/10.5897/IJPDS2018.0318
- Banwell, S. (2018). Security, peace, and development: Unpacking discursive constructions of wartime rape and sexual violence in Syria. International journal of peace and development studies, 9(2), 15-30. https://doi.org/10.5897/IJPDS2018.0318 DOI: https://doi.org/10.5897/IJPDS2018.0318
- Barany, Z. (2011). Comparing the Arab Revolts: The Role of the Military. Journal of Democracy, 22(4), 28–39. https://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2011.0069 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2011.0069
- Bauchard, D. (2011). Le «printempsarabe» entre espoirset disillusions. Revue Moyen-Orient, 10, 18-25.
- Berger, H., & Spoerer, M. (2001). Economic Crises and the European Revolutions of 1848. The Journal of Economic History, 61(2), 293-326. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022050701028029 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022050701028029
- Berman, I. (2011). Tightening the Economic Noose – Curbing Iran’s Nuclear Ambitions. Middle East Quarterly, 41-47.
- Burgat, F. (2011). Anatomy of the Arab Spring. Bertrand Badie Dominique Vidal. New players, new deal: the state of the world 2012. The Discovery, 97-107.
- Campante, F. R. & Chor, D. (2012). Why was the Arab world poised for revolution? Schooling, economic opportunities, and the Arab spring. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 26(2), 167–188. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.26.2.167 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.26.2.167
- Chenoweth, E. (2011) Backfire in the Arab Spring. https://www.mei.edu/publications/backfire-arab-spring.
- Comunello, F. & G. Anzera. (2012). Will the Revolution be Tweeted? A Conceptual Framework for Understanding Social Media and the Arab Spring. Islam and Christian–Muslim Relations, 23 (4), 453–70. https://doi.org/10.1080/09596410.2012.712435 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/09596410.2012.712435
- Erameh, N. I. (2017). Humanitarian Intervention, Syria and the Politics of Human Rights Protection. The International Journal of Human Rights, 21(5), 517-530. https://doi.org/10.1080/13642987.2017.1307829 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/13642987.2017.1307829
- Gearty, C. (2016). Human rights in an age of counter-terrorism. In War on terror. Manchester University Press, 2016. https://doi.org/10.7765/9780719095184.00011 DOI: https://doi.org/10.7765/9780719095184.00011
- Haas, L.M. (2017). The Arab Spring. Routledge: New York. https://doi.org/10.4324/9780429494581 DOI: https://doi.org/10.4324/9780429494581
- Human Rights Watch. World Report (2018). Rights Trends in Syria. https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2018/country-chapters/syria
- Idris, I. (2017). International Humanitarian Law and Human Rights Violations in Syria, K4D Helpdesk Report. United Kingdom Department for International Development, 1-11. https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/r esources/127-IHL-and-HR-violations-in-Syria.pdf
- Islam, M. (2008). Decline of Muslim States and Societies. New York, 51-53.
- Islam, R., Ghani, A.B.A., Othman, M.F., & Apandi, L.S.A. (2019). Political economy and its impact on international trade. Humanities & Social Sciences Reviews, 7(3), 651-660. https://doi.org/10.18510/hssr.2019.7396 DOI: https://doi.org/10.18510/hssr.2019.7396
- Kohstall, F. (2015). From Reform to Resistance: Universities and Student Mobilization in Egypt and Morocco Before and After the Arab Uprisings. British Journal of Middle Eastern Studies, 42 (1), 59-73. https://doi.org/10.1080/13530194.2015.973183 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/13530194.2015.973183
- Korotayev, A.B., & Zinkina, Yu.V. (2011). Egyptian Revolution 2011: Structural Demographic Analysis. Asia and Africa today. http://asiaafrica.ru/files/20110682.pdf
- Kurpebayeva, G. (2018). The role of Islamic factors in the socio-political development of the Arabs. Bulletin of the Karaganda University, 2 (90), 100.
- Kurpebayeva, G. (2019). Conceptual analysis of "Arab Spring" in North Africa and the Middle East. Bulletin of L.N. Gumilyov Eurasian National University, 3, 45. https://doi.org/10.32523/26-16-6887/2019-128-3-40-49 DOI: https://doi.org/10.32523/26-16-6887/2019-128-3-40-49
- Kurpebayeva, G. (2020). The Changing Balance of Power in the Middle East, IX International Scientific Conference. Regional Socio-humanitarian Researches: History and Contemporaneity, Prague, 52-57.
- Lamer W. (2016). Promoting the People's Surrogate: The Case for Press Freedom as a Distinct Human Right. Journal of Human Rights, 15(3), 361–382. https://doi.org/10.1080/14754835.2015.1106307 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/14754835.2015.1106307
- Landa, R.G. (2005). History of Arab Countries. Moscow, 67-102.
- Maddison, A. (2007). Contours of the World Economy. 1-2030 AD, Oxford, 59, 192, 376. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8411.2005.00164.x-i1 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8411.2005.00164.x-i1
- Manfreda, P. (2011). Top Ten Reasons for the Uprising in Syria. middleeast.about.com.
- Melyantsev, V.A. (2000). Variables (A Comparative Assessment of Growth Efficiency in the 1980-2000s). Moscow, 206.
- Melyantsev, V.A. (2008). Africa Sub-Saharan Africa: A Comparative Assessment of Macroeconomic and Social Performance. Vestnik MGU. Vostokovedeniye, 2, 12-13.
- Nepomnin, O.E. & Ivanov, N.A. (2010). Typology of Asian Societies. Moscow, 2010.
- Oatley, T.H. (2016). International Political Economy. 5th Edition. London, Routledge, Taylor & Francis Group, 416.
- Pieterse, J.N. (2011). Multiple Renaissances, Multiple Modernities. Theory, Culture and Society, 28 (3), 153. https://doi.org/10.1177/0263276411399301 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/0263276411399301
- Ponomareva, E. & Rudov, G. (2012). Color Revolutions: Nature, Symbols, Technology]. Observer, 3, 37.
- Primakov, Е.М. (2012). The Middle East Course of Russia: Historical Stages, the Middle East, the Arabian Awakening and Russia: What Next? (Naumkin, V.V., Popov, V.V. & Kuznetsov, V.A. Eds.). Moscow.
- Relly, J. E. & Cuillier, D. (2010). A Comparison of Political, Cultural, and Economic Indicators of Access to Information in Arab and non-Arab states. Government Information Quarterly, 27(4), 360–370. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.giq.2010.04.004 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.giq.2010.04.004
- Rofii, M. (2020). Dinamika Pasca Arab Spring. Jurnal Dinamika Global. 4, 283-302. https://doi.org/10.36859/jdg.v4i02.135 DOI: https://doi.org/10.36859/jdg.v4i02.135
- Saleh, H. & Peel, M. A. (2011). Graft Probe Seeks to Appease Egyptian Public. The Financial Times, England.
- Salim Al-Rawashdeh, M. & Abdulkareem Akho Rshaidah, H. (2014). The future of Arab spring, reality and ambition. G.J.I.S.S., 4, 136-146. ISSN: 2319-8834.
- Santos, B., Camila, B., Caroline, C., Joaquim, M., Vivian, C., Diagramação, D.F., & Capa, H.C. (2018). United Nations Security Council (UNSC). https://www.pernambucomun.com.br/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/UNSC-STUDY-GUIDE.pdf
- Sperber, J. (2005). The European Revolutions. 1848-1851. Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511817717 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511817717
- Stepanova, Е. (2011). Arab Revolutions. To the Dialectic of Causes and Effects. The paths to peace and security, 1-2, 41.
- Svolik, M. (2011). Moral Hazard in Authoritarian Repression and the Fate of Dictators. The Political Economist, 13(2), 7–9.
- The World Bank. (2009). Middle East and North Africa Region. Economic Developments and Prospects, Washington, D.C., 60.
- The World Bank. (2010). World Development Indicators, 132-134.
- Timeline: Tunisia’s Uprising. (2011). Al-Jazeera (English), January 23, 2011, http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/spotlight/tunisia/2011/01/2011141
- Tinawi, H. (2019). Arab Spring Thesis.
- Turku, H. (2018). International Law on Protection of Cultural Property During Armed Conflict. In the Destruction of Cultural Property as a Weapon of War. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham, 99-133. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-57282-6_4 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-57282-6_4
- Tuygan, A. (2019) The Arab Spring Nine Years On https://edam.org.tr/en/the-arab-spring-nine-years-on/
- Veninga, W. & Ihle, R. (2018). Import Vulnerability in the Middle East: Effects of the Arab Spring on Egyptian Wheat Trade. Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, The International Society for Plant Pathology, 10 (1). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12571-017-0755-2 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12571-017-0755-2
- Yermekbayev, A., Khairullayeva, V., Iztayeva, V., Zhuztayeva, B., & Doszhanova, A. (2020). Relations Between Turkey and Russia in the Context of Energy Partnership. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy. 10. 166-171. https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.8448 DOI: https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.8448
- Yermekbayev, A.A., Abzhaparova, L.Z., & Iztayeva, V.A. (2019). The Russian-Turkish Relations in the Context of Syrian Crisis. Opción, 35 (Especial No19), 362-380.
References
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Alharbi, D., Othman, Z., & Daud, S. (2020). The impact of the post Arab spring on the human rights in Syria. Humanities & Social Sciences Reviews, 8(1), 456-463. https://doi.org/10.18510/hssr.2020.8157 DOI: https://doi.org/10.18510/hssr.2020.8157
Al-Shammari, N. & Willoughby, J. (2019). Determinants of Political Instability Across Arab Spring Countries. Mediterranean Politics, 24 (2), 196-217. https://doi.org/10.1080/13629395.2017.1389349 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/13629395.2017.1389349
Al-Sharekh, A. (2011). Reform and Rebirth in the Middle East. Survival, 53 (2), 57. https://doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2011.571010 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2011.571010
Amnesty International (2016). State of the World’s Human Rights. Retrieved from https://www.amnesty.org/en/countries/middle-east-and-north-africa/syria/report-syria/
Anderson, T. (2017). Syria: The diplomatic endgame: An analysis of what is really happening in the damaged country. Australian Rationalist, 104, 13-14. https://doi.org/10.5897/IJPDS2018.0318 DOI: https://doi.org/10.5897/IJPDS2018.0318
Banwell, S. (2018). Security, peace, and development: Unpacking discursive constructions of wartime rape and sexual violence in Syria. International journal of peace and development studies, 9(2), 15-30. https://doi.org/10.5897/IJPDS2018.0318 DOI: https://doi.org/10.5897/IJPDS2018.0318
Barany, Z. (2011). Comparing the Arab Revolts: The Role of the Military. Journal of Democracy, 22(4), 28–39. https://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2011.0069 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2011.0069
Bauchard, D. (2011). Le «printempsarabe» entre espoirset disillusions. Revue Moyen-Orient, 10, 18-25.
Berger, H., & Spoerer, M. (2001). Economic Crises and the European Revolutions of 1848. The Journal of Economic History, 61(2), 293-326. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022050701028029 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022050701028029
Berman, I. (2011). Tightening the Economic Noose – Curbing Iran’s Nuclear Ambitions. Middle East Quarterly, 41-47.
Burgat, F. (2011). Anatomy of the Arab Spring. Bertrand Badie Dominique Vidal. New players, new deal: the state of the world 2012. The Discovery, 97-107.
Campante, F. R. & Chor, D. (2012). Why was the Arab world poised for revolution? Schooling, economic opportunities, and the Arab spring. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 26(2), 167–188. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.26.2.167 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.26.2.167
Chenoweth, E. (2011) Backfire in the Arab Spring. https://www.mei.edu/publications/backfire-arab-spring.
Comunello, F. & G. Anzera. (2012). Will the Revolution be Tweeted? A Conceptual Framework for Understanding Social Media and the Arab Spring. Islam and Christian–Muslim Relations, 23 (4), 453–70. https://doi.org/10.1080/09596410.2012.712435 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/09596410.2012.712435
Erameh, N. I. (2017). Humanitarian Intervention, Syria and the Politics of Human Rights Protection. The International Journal of Human Rights, 21(5), 517-530. https://doi.org/10.1080/13642987.2017.1307829 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/13642987.2017.1307829
Gearty, C. (2016). Human rights in an age of counter-terrorism. In War on terror. Manchester University Press, 2016. https://doi.org/10.7765/9780719095184.00011 DOI: https://doi.org/10.7765/9780719095184.00011
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Islam, M. (2008). Decline of Muslim States and Societies. New York, 51-53.
Islam, R., Ghani, A.B.A., Othman, M.F., & Apandi, L.S.A. (2019). Political economy and its impact on international trade. Humanities & Social Sciences Reviews, 7(3), 651-660. https://doi.org/10.18510/hssr.2019.7396 DOI: https://doi.org/10.18510/hssr.2019.7396
Kohstall, F. (2015). From Reform to Resistance: Universities and Student Mobilization in Egypt and Morocco Before and After the Arab Uprisings. British Journal of Middle Eastern Studies, 42 (1), 59-73. https://doi.org/10.1080/13530194.2015.973183 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/13530194.2015.973183
Korotayev, A.B., & Zinkina, Yu.V. (2011). Egyptian Revolution 2011: Structural Demographic Analysis. Asia and Africa today. http://asiaafrica.ru/files/20110682.pdf
Kurpebayeva, G. (2018). The role of Islamic factors in the socio-political development of the Arabs. Bulletin of the Karaganda University, 2 (90), 100.
Kurpebayeva, G. (2019). Conceptual analysis of "Arab Spring" in North Africa and the Middle East. Bulletin of L.N. Gumilyov Eurasian National University, 3, 45. https://doi.org/10.32523/26-16-6887/2019-128-3-40-49 DOI: https://doi.org/10.32523/26-16-6887/2019-128-3-40-49
Kurpebayeva, G. (2020). The Changing Balance of Power in the Middle East, IX International Scientific Conference. Regional Socio-humanitarian Researches: History and Contemporaneity, Prague, 52-57.
Lamer W. (2016). Promoting the People's Surrogate: The Case for Press Freedom as a Distinct Human Right. Journal of Human Rights, 15(3), 361–382. https://doi.org/10.1080/14754835.2015.1106307 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/14754835.2015.1106307
Landa, R.G. (2005). History of Arab Countries. Moscow, 67-102.
Maddison, A. (2007). Contours of the World Economy. 1-2030 AD, Oxford, 59, 192, 376. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8411.2005.00164.x-i1 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8411.2005.00164.x-i1
Manfreda, P. (2011). Top Ten Reasons for the Uprising in Syria. middleeast.about.com.
Melyantsev, V.A. (2000). Variables (A Comparative Assessment of Growth Efficiency in the 1980-2000s). Moscow, 206.
Melyantsev, V.A. (2008). Africa Sub-Saharan Africa: A Comparative Assessment of Macroeconomic and Social Performance. Vestnik MGU. Vostokovedeniye, 2, 12-13.
Nepomnin, O.E. & Ivanov, N.A. (2010). Typology of Asian Societies. Moscow, 2010.
Oatley, T.H. (2016). International Political Economy. 5th Edition. London, Routledge, Taylor & Francis Group, 416.
Pieterse, J.N. (2011). Multiple Renaissances, Multiple Modernities. Theory, Culture and Society, 28 (3), 153. https://doi.org/10.1177/0263276411399301 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/0263276411399301
Ponomareva, E. & Rudov, G. (2012). Color Revolutions: Nature, Symbols, Technology]. Observer, 3, 37.
Primakov, Е.М. (2012). The Middle East Course of Russia: Historical Stages, the Middle East, the Arabian Awakening and Russia: What Next? (Naumkin, V.V., Popov, V.V. & Kuznetsov, V.A. Eds.). Moscow.
Relly, J. E. & Cuillier, D. (2010). A Comparison of Political, Cultural, and Economic Indicators of Access to Information in Arab and non-Arab states. Government Information Quarterly, 27(4), 360–370. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.giq.2010.04.004 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.giq.2010.04.004
Rofii, M. (2020). Dinamika Pasca Arab Spring. Jurnal Dinamika Global. 4, 283-302. https://doi.org/10.36859/jdg.v4i02.135 DOI: https://doi.org/10.36859/jdg.v4i02.135
Saleh, H. & Peel, M. A. (2011). Graft Probe Seeks to Appease Egyptian Public. The Financial Times, England.
Salim Al-Rawashdeh, M. & Abdulkareem Akho Rshaidah, H. (2014). The future of Arab spring, reality and ambition. G.J.I.S.S., 4, 136-146. ISSN: 2319-8834.
Santos, B., Camila, B., Caroline, C., Joaquim, M., Vivian, C., Diagramação, D.F., & Capa, H.C. (2018). United Nations Security Council (UNSC). https://www.pernambucomun.com.br/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/UNSC-STUDY-GUIDE.pdf
Sperber, J. (2005). The European Revolutions. 1848-1851. Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511817717 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511817717
Stepanova, Е. (2011). Arab Revolutions. To the Dialectic of Causes and Effects. The paths to peace and security, 1-2, 41.
Svolik, M. (2011). Moral Hazard in Authoritarian Repression and the Fate of Dictators. The Political Economist, 13(2), 7–9.
The World Bank. (2009). Middle East and North Africa Region. Economic Developments and Prospects, Washington, D.C., 60.
The World Bank. (2010). World Development Indicators, 132-134.
Timeline: Tunisia’s Uprising. (2011). Al-Jazeera (English), January 23, 2011, http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/spotlight/tunisia/2011/01/2011141
Tinawi, H. (2019). Arab Spring Thesis.
Turku, H. (2018). International Law on Protection of Cultural Property During Armed Conflict. In the Destruction of Cultural Property as a Weapon of War. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham, 99-133. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-57282-6_4 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-57282-6_4
Tuygan, A. (2019) The Arab Spring Nine Years On https://edam.org.tr/en/the-arab-spring-nine-years-on/
Veninga, W. & Ihle, R. (2018). Import Vulnerability in the Middle East: Effects of the Arab Spring on Egyptian Wheat Trade. Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, The International Society for Plant Pathology, 10 (1). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12571-017-0755-2 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12571-017-0755-2
Yermekbayev, A., Khairullayeva, V., Iztayeva, V., Zhuztayeva, B., & Doszhanova, A. (2020). Relations Between Turkey and Russia in the Context of Energy Partnership. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy. 10. 166-171. https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.8448 DOI: https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.8448
Yermekbayev, A.A., Abzhaparova, L.Z., & Iztayeva, V.A. (2019). The Russian-Turkish Relations in the Context of Syrian Crisis. Opción, 35 (Especial No19), 362-380.